Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 0.022741 0.025842 0.029225 0.033192 0.037718 0.042726 0.048693
2025-02-16 0.017626 0.021800 0.026763 0.033110 0.041029 0.050603 0.063093
2025-02-23 0.014924 0.019543 0.025366 0.033265 0.043739 0.057199 0.075892
2025-03-02 0.012814 0.017575 0.023867 0.032825 0.045309 0.062175 0.086840
2025-03-09 0.011573 0.016524 0.023343 0.033467 0.048206 0.069013 0.100859
2025-03-16 0.010292 0.015226 0.022273 0.033134 0.049567 0.073695 0.112155
2025-03-23 0.009608 0.014688 0.022191 0.034161 0.052938 0.081530 0.128874
2025-03-30 0.008515 0.013405 0.020849 0.033098 0.052947 0.084183 0.137717
2025-04-06 0.007725 0.012500 0.019977 0.032646 0.053813 0.088172 0.149010
2025-04-13 0.006880 0.011419 0.018715 0.031414 0.053241 0.089711 0.156273
2025-04-20 0.006582 0.011201 0.018821 0.032447 0.056535 0.097958 0.175887
2025-04-27 0.006273 0.010934 0.018813 0.033265 0.059509 0.105895 0.195728
2025-05-04 0.005997 0.010705 0.018865 0.034222 0.062879 0.114957 0.218828
2025-05-11 0.005558 0.010150 0.018295 0.034005 0.064085 0.120214 0.235352
2025-05-18 0.005222 0.009747 0.017957 0.034172 0.066005 0.126955 0.255446
2025-05-25 0.004835 0.009213 0.017328 0.033719 0.066669 0.131316 0.271191
2025-06-01 0.004626 0.008998 0.017278 0.034379 0.069583 0.140361 0.297554
2025-06-08 0.004315 0.008557 0.016752 0.034036 0.070418 0.145266 0.315636
2025-06-15 0.004188 0.008469 0.016908 0.035092 0.074247 0.156712 0.349202
2025-06-22 0.003843 0.007909 0.016072 0.034000 0.073399 0.158150 0.360515
2025-06-29 0.003593 0.007522 0.015555 0.033535 0.073858 0.162438 0.378777
2025-07-06 0.003287 0.006995 0.014704 0.032268 0.072416 0.162368 0.386779
2025-07-13 0.003216 0.006964 0.014898 0.033330 0.076337 0.174781 0.426121